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BOAO, Hainan, April 18 (Xinhua) -- China's economic stimulus package plan is already paying off, and positive changes have taken place in the economy, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said Saturday.     "The situation is better than expected," Wen said at the opening ceremony of the Boao Forum for Asia annual conference 2009.     The "swift" and "decisive" measures taken by China to deal with the crisis has proved essential for easing major problems in the economy, shoring up confidence and stabilizing expectations, said the premier.     The growth domestic production (GDP) of the world's third largest economy rose 6.1 percent in the first quarter, the slowest pace in a decade. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao gives a keynote speech at the opening plenary of Boao Forum for Asia (BFA) Annual Conference 2009 in Boao, a scenic town in south China’s Hainan Province, April 18, 2009. The BFA Annual Conference 2009 opened here on Saturday with the theme of “Asia: Managing Beyond Crisis”.     Premier Wen said the economy was "better than expected", citing pick-ups in investment, consumption and industrial output, as well as ample liquidity in the banking system.     He said the stimulus policies were primarily aimed at boosting domestic demand, and at the same time made full use of external demand, to make both of them drive economic growth.     "This will lead to the transformation towards a more balanced growth pattern of the Chinese economy," he said. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao gives a keynote speech at the opening plenary of Boao Forum for Asia (BFA) Annual Conference 2009 in Boao, a scenic town in south China’s Hainan Province, April 18, 2009. Wen said the stimulus policy would give a big push to the shift from extensive economic growth driven by high consumption of material resources to intensive growth driven by scientific and technological advancement, improved quality of the workforce and institutional innovation.     He stressed the package plan aimed at addressing both symptoms and root causes and serving both current needs and long-term goals, and the economic restructuring had made encouraging progress.     The premier also reiterated the government was doing everything in its power to create jobs, especially for college graduates and rural migrant workers. He noted the urban employment rose as 2.68 million jobs were created in the urban areas in the first quarter.     The industrial output had gradually stabilized, and agriculture production was on the whole stable, he said.     "We should not, however, lose sight of the fact that the international financial crisis is still spreading, the basic trend of world economic recession is not reversed, problems in the financial system remained unsolved and the worsening of the real economy has been more serious than expected," he warned.     He said the crisis had presented China with great challenges in economic and social development including sharp decline in exports, greater difficulties in stabilizing agriculture production and increasing farmer's income, industry overcapacity, and slow recovery in industrial growth, and severe pressure of unemployment.

BEIJING, Feb. 23 (Xinhua) -- China's central bank on Monday warned of deflation in the near term caused by continuing downward pressure on prices.     Commodities prices were low and weak external demand could exacerbate domestic over-capacity, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) said in an assessment of fourth-quarter monetary policy.     "Against the backdrop of shrinking general demand, the power to push up prices is weak and that to drive down prices is strong," the PBOC said. "There exists a big risk of deflation."     China's consumer price index (CPI), a major gauge of inflation, rose 1 percent in January from a year earlier. In that period, the producer price index (PPI), a measure of inflation at the wholesale level, dropped 3.3 percent.     But the PBOC also warned of medium and long-term inflation risks.     As the central banks worldwide injected a huge amount of liquidity into the financial system, commodities prices could repeat earlier rallies if market confidence recovered, it said.     The PBOC stated that China's economy faced further downside risks because of slackening external demand, over-capacity in some sectors and increases in urban job losses.     The gross domestic product expanded at a slower rate of 6.8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008, as exports slumped and the property sector sagged, dragging down growth for the whole of 2008to a seven-year low of 9 percent     But China had huge market potential and as the macro controls started to take effect, its economy was likely to maintain stable and relatively fast growth, it said.     To spur growth, the PBOC said it would ensure ample liquidity in the banking system and promote the reasonable and stable growth of credit.     It also reaffirmed that China would keep the Renminbi (RMB) exchange rate basically stable, while making it more flexible in a self-initiated, gradual and controllable manner.

LONDON, April 3 (Xinhua) -- Chinese President Hu Jintao made concrete proposals on tackling the global financial crisis at the G20 London summit, playing an important and constructive role for the summit to gain pragmatic results, the Chinese foreign minister said on Friday.     "The summit produced measures of high value in fighting the financial crisis and built up confidence for the world to tide over the crisis and renew economic growth," Yang Jiechi said, adding that Hu's proposals contributed to the result. Chinese President Hu Jintao attends the Group of 20 summit in London, Britain, April 2, 2009. The international community held high expectations, especially on influential emerging economies such as China, and President Hu's attendance caught much attention, Yang said.     At the summit, Hu called for international cooperation, actively participated in various discussions, comprehensively introduced China's effective measures in dealing with the financial crisis, Yang said.     According to Yang, the Chinese president's trip was proved to a success mainly in five aspects. Chinese President Hu Jintao (R) meets with British Prime Minister Gordon Brown in London, Britain, on April 1, 2009. Firstly, Hu expounded China's opinions on the global financial crisis and called for coordination and support between each other to "join hands and tide over the difficulties together."     Hu reiterated the Chinese government's willingness to strengthen macroeconomic policy coordination with the international community, push the reform of the international financial system forward, actively safeguard the stability of the multilateral trade mechanism and contribute to the restoration of the world's economic development.     Secondly, Hu put forward proposals on reforming the international financial system, saying efforts should be made to strengthen cooperation in financial regulations, formulate as soon as possible widely accepted standards and norms of the regulations, Yang said. Chinese President Hu Jintao (2nd R) talks with British Prime Minister Gorden Brown (R) as they prepare to pose for a family photo during the Group of 20 summit in London, Britain, April 2, 2009International financial institutions should offer more aid to developing countries and the Financial Stability Forum should playa bigger role, the Chinese president said.     The International Monetary Fund (IMF) should strengthen and improve its supervision over the macroeconomic policies of various economies, major reserve currency issuing economies in particular, with a special focus on their currency issuing policies.     Measures should be taken to improve the governance structures of the IMF and the World Bank and give more say to developing countries.     Thirdly, Hu introduced to world leaders China's anti-crisis measures and preliminary achievements gained in tackling the economic downturn.     Fourthly, China voiced strong opposition to protectionism and concerns over development issues, Yang said.     Hu pointed out that protectionism had produced grave consequences, lessons of history must be learnt, and no country should resort to protectionism under the excuse of stimulating the economy.     Yang said the crisis has taken its toll particularly on the developing nations and the UN Millennium Goals have also suffered as a result.     China, as the world's biggest developing nation, has spared no efforts in defending the interests of developing nations, the minister said.     Fifthly, Hu's visit promotes bilateral relations with some countries, Yang said. Chinese President Hu Jintao (L) shakes hands with U.S. President Barack Obama during their meeting in London, Britain, on April 1, 2009In London, Hu held talks with his U.S. counterpart Barack Obama in the first meeting between the two heads of state since the new U.S. administration took office in January, agreeing to build a positive, cooperative and comprehensive relationship in the 21st century and establish a new "China-U.S. Strategic and Economic Dialogue" mechanism.     The meeting ushered in a new era which features healthy and stable development of China-U.S. relations, Yang said.     In a meeting between Hu and his Russian counterpart Dmitry Medvedev, the two leaders agreed to push forward bilateral ties, jointly tackle the global financial crisis and strengthen coordination in dealing with international affairs. Chinese President Hu Jintao (L) meets with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev in London, Britain, April 1, 2009When meeting with British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, Hu reached broad consensus with him on tackling the international financial crisis, promoting the reform of the world financial system and enhancing bilateral relations.     Hu also met with his French counterpart Nicolas Sarkozy, Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, and South Korean President Lee Myung-bak.     Despite a tight schedule, Hu tried to seize every opportunity to explain China's positions and views on various issues and achieved good results, Yang said. Chinese President Hu Jintao (R) shakes hands with French President Nicolas Sarkozy during their meeting in London, Britain, on April 1, 2009G20 groups the world's major economies and serves as a key and effective platform for tackling the current global economic and financial challenges, Yang said.     China is ready to work with other G20 members to implement the consensus reached at the London summit and make greater contributions to overcoming the financial crisis, renewing global economic growth and advancing international financial reforms, the minister concluded.

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BEIJING, Feb. 6 (Xinhua) -- Thousands of Chinese wrote to the Ministry of Education in the past month to offer advice on the education plans for the next decade, according to a ministry official on Friday.     The Ministry of Education received about 1.1 million pieces of proposals in the past month, said Tian Huisheng, said a ministry official in charge of processing the public opinions.     People sent e-mails, letters and left posts on the ministry's Web site since the draft of the long-term plan on education reform and development was announced to solicit public opinions on Jan. 7.     The plan will be the country's first education development plan in the 21st century. It will include major guidelines and policies about education before 2020.     People from various backgrounds wrote to the ministry, including teenage students, retired teachers and pedagogy experts, said Han Jin, director of the education development planning division under the ministry in charge of drafting the plan. "The ministry has never ever received so many proposals."     Han recalled a letter from a 91-year-old retired teacher. He suggested the schools to improve training on students' handwriting as more and more young people are using computers.     "The proposals were about a wide range of topics but many focused on the biggest challenges in today's education service," Tian said.     Based on the proposals, the ministry made a list of top 20 problems people cared most about education service.     The top ten problems were: How to improve the number and quality of teachers in rural areas; how to realize quality education; how to reform the administration of educational institutions; how to reform the enrollment exams of all levels; how to improve preschool education; how to reduce the homework of primary and middle school students; how to fully implement the nine-year compulsory education program; how to reform higher education; how to improve the education service to rural residents and children of migrant workers; and to enable people to enjoy equal access to education.     "We will not leave out any valuable proposals. A team made up of dozens of education experts were processing the proposals round the clock," Tian said.     Education has long been one of the most talked about and controversial social problems among Chinese.     A survey by the National Bureau of Statistics issued in early 2008 showed that education was the fourth most important issue to the Chinese people, following health care service, social morality and social security.     "Education is relevant to every citizen. Students are from different backgrounds and interest groups. That's why an education development plan must be discussed widely in the society to reach a common understanding," said Prof. Yang Dongping, a pedagogy expert with the Beijing Institute of Technology.     The agenda of the public education policy should be set through such discussions, he said.     "We hope more people continue offering their ideas about the top 20 problems we announced today, especially practical proposals," Han said.     The proceeding to solicit public opinions will end by the end of this month.

BEIJING, March 25 (Xinhua) -- China's top discipline supervision official urged state-owned financial institutions to step up anti-graft efforts while actively advancing financial reforms to contribute to the tackling of international financial crisis.     He Guoqiang, secretary of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, made the remarks during his three-day inspection tour, from Monday to Wednesday, to state-owned banks and government financial regulatory bodies. He Guoqiang (1st L), member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, shakes hands with a woman during his inspection of China Anti-Money Laundering Monitoring and Analysis Center in Beijing, capital of China, March 23, 2009. He Guoqiang inspected banks and financial institutions on March 23-25He, also a member of the Standing Committee of the CPC Central Committee Political Bureau, inspected China Investment Corporation, China Development Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China, China Construction Bank and the China Anti-Money Laundering Monitoring and Analysis Center.     He also listened to work reports from the People's Bank of China as well as banking, securities and insurance regulatory commissions.

BEIJING, Feb. 8 (Xinhua) -- China's state assets watchdog will closely watch over projects implemented by state-owned enterprises(SOEs) in the country's massive stimulus package to prevent corruption, an official said here Sunday.     The State-owned Assets Supervision and Management Commission (SASAC) will strictly look into the progress and fund use of projects by SOEs directly under the central government, said the SASAC director Li Rongrong.     Many projects are estimated to see over tens of millions of yuan put in, making it a more important task to fend off corruption, he said at an SOE meeting on disciplinary inspection work.     China unveiled a stimulus package with a total investment of 4 trillion yuan (586 billion U.S. dollars) in November to boost domestic demand and offset the world economic slowdown.     Of the total, 100 billion yuan had been allocated by the central government by the end of last year.     Li said inspectors will particularly focus on projects in such sectors as power grids, telecommunications, transportation, equipment, construction and metallurgy.     The SASAC will also check whether the projects cause environmental hazards, consume too much energy and resources or result in excessive capacity, said Li.     A total of 4,960 Chinese officials above the county level were punished in a year ending November 2008, data show. They were involved in corruption and commercial bribes, hurting people's interests.

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LHASA/BEIJING, March 28 (Xinhua) -- The first Serfs Emancipation Day was celebrated across Tibet Autonomous Region on Saturday, while people from elsewhere in China expressed their wishes to the Tibetans. 　　CELEBRATION ACROSS TIBET     In Lhasa, readers of the broadsheet Tibet Daily and Tibet Economic Daily found that Saturday's edition of both newspapers became thicker--special issues were published to introduce the changes since democratic reform in 1959.     In the Ngaqen village, fully attired Tibetans gathered in the village club to watch the televised grand celebration held on the square in front of the Potala Palace about 30 kilometers away in the seat of Lhasa.     Tsamjo, 66, who lived in a two-story building, said her life was better than "the landlord in the past".     She had worked as a serf for seven years before the democratic reform. "At that time, our plot of land was smaller than a palm, and our room was as big as the nose of a cow," she said.     After the ceremony, villagers performed traditional Tibetan dances and held a contest of tug-of-war. Tibetan people in traditional dress celebrate the first Serfs Emancipation Day at home in Qamdo, southwest China's Tibet Autonomous Region, March 28, 2009In the Tashigang village of Dagze county, more than 1,000 people enjoyed their own party.     "We have prepared for about a month for the party on our own holiday," 19-year-old Degyi said while doing the makeup.     As a young girl, she admitted that she had little knowledge about the past. "But I feel sad whenever listening to my grandparents telling the stories," she said.     In the Qamdo prefecture in east Tibet, slogans written on red scrolls hailing the Serfs Emancipation Day could be seen on major roads, where sellers in vegetable markets were waiting for their customers, monks in monasteries were chanting sutras and street vendors were soliciting business. Life was as peaceful as ordinary days. In the Tianjin square, dozens of passers-by stopped to watch performances for the holiday.     In Beijing, Serfs Emancipation Day became the hottest topic among students in the Tibet Middle School. Many students hummed the old song "Freed serfs sing in happiness".     "My grandparents were both serfs," said an eleventh-grader Dawa Dorje. A Tibetan man in traditional dress plugs the national flag on the roof of his house during the celebration of the first Serfs Emancipation Day at home in Qamdo, southwest China's Tibet Autonomous Region, March 28, 2009 "They told me that they tied stones to their feet as shoes, and my granny became blind because she had no money to cure her eye illness," she said.     Currently there are 810 Tibetan students in the school, whose accommodation, clothes, health care were all funded by the government.     Main celebration for the holiday was held on the square in front of the Potala Palace in Lhasa, capital city of Tibet, at 10 a.m.     The gathering was presided over in both Tibetan and Mandarin by Qiangba Puncog, chairman of the regional government of Tibet, who was dressed in a traditional Tibetan robe. It was attended by about 13,280 people.     After the national flag was hoisted against the backdrop of the grand Potala Palace and snow-capped mountains in the distance, representatives of former serfs, soldiers from the People's Liberation Army (PLA) and students delivered speeches.     Tibet's Communist Party chief Zhang Qingli was the last to speak.     "Burying feudal serfdom and liberating the one million serfs in Tibet was a natural development in history ... a milestone in the worldwide campaign to abolish slavery, a sign of progress in human rights," he said.     "Tibet belongs to China, not the a few separatists or the international forces against China. Any conspiracy attempting to separate the region from China is doomed to failure. The sky in Tibet will forever be blue, and the national flag will flutter high," he noted.     The ceremony lasted for more than an hour.     REMEMBERING THE PAST     As usual, foreign "critics" jumped up before the Serfs Emancipation Day, saying China exaggerated the cruelty of traditional Tibetan life to disguise a power grab, and that "serfdom" is too loaded to describe the Tibetan system.     But 73-year-old Baya in Qamdo, who was born to be a Tralpa, or a kind of serf whose life was better among all, said she would never return to the old society. Tibetan people in traditional dress celebrate the first Serfs Emancipation Day at home in Qamdo, southwest China's Tibet Autonomous Region, March 28, 2009 "I began to graze cattle when I was nine years old," she said. "There were many wolves in the pasturing area, and the aristocrats always asked us to deliver messages in midnight."     "We were afraid of the ghost, and I once witnessed a horde of wolves attack a lama..." she was apparently still in fear.     What they wore then was goat's skin, dried under the sun, because they didn't have cloth. They didn't have shoes.     "If the feet bled, we just apply the oil of the goat to the wounds," she said.     Dinner was potherb soup. "We didn't have Tsampa (food made of barley floor) to eat, let alone rice and wheat."     Baya said her first taste of sugar was after the People's Liberation Army (PLA) entered Tibet. The sugar was brought to there from Yunnan Province.     Zhao Qingui, a 73-year-old Tibetan veteran soldier, joined the PLA in 1950.     "At that time, only the aristocrats had tooth paste, tooth brush, biscuit, wool and fruits. The majority of people, or the serfs, could only wish not to be starved," he said.     Sun Huanxun, a PLA veteran who went to Tibet also in 1950 and stayed there, recalled what he saw in Lhasa before the democratic reform.     "Serfs wailed and begged from passers-by, some of whom had their legs chopped by the landlords, some have their eyes gouged out and some without hands," he said.     In contrast, the landlords were in luxurious dress, some riding on the backs of their slaves. "In their houses there hung whips, knives and shackles," he added. Local residents compete tug-of-war during the celebration ceremony to mark the first Serfs Emancipation Day in Gaba village in the suburb of Lhasa, capital of southwest China's Tibet Autonomous Region, March 28, 2009. A grand celebration ceremony is held here on Saturday to mark the first Serfs Emancipation DayQi Jiguang, a historian from the Deqen Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture, recited the sentences he read from slave contracts: "I would be your slave so long as the snow-capped mountain didn't collapse, the water from rivers didn't dry up."     The Khesum village in Shannan Prefecture was hailed as the first village to implement the democratic reform. Before the Serfs Emancipation Day, residents in the village wrote an open letter:     "We could never forget the old adage: there are three knives over the heads of serfs--heavy labor, heavy rent, and high interest; there are three paths before their eyes--flee from famine, become slave, or go begging."     "We would never return to the dark, backward, and cruel fuedal serfdom society. We would cherish the life now like cherishing our own eyes," it reads. 　　FOR BETTER FUTURE     Chinese President Hu Jintao visited an exhibition marking the 50th Anniversary of Democratic Reform in Tibet, at the Cultural Palace of Nationalities in Beijing.     During his visit, he said that the "good situation" in today's Tibet was "hard-earned and should be highly cherished."     He also noted that the reform 50 years ago was "the most extensive, profound and progressive social transformation in the history of Tibet. Tibet should move from being "basically stable" to "peaceful and stable in the long run," he stressed.     On the Serfs Emancipation Day, 25 villagers from the Ngoklog village in Qamdo joined the Communist Party of China.     "I am happy to join the Party on this special day," said Asum. Tibetan people perform to mark the first Serfs Emancipation Day at Tianjin Square in Qamdo, southwest China's Tibet Autonomous Region, March 28, 2009Gyezang, 33, is an English teacher from Xigaze. "Establishment of the day could help us remember the darkness in the past and cherish the life more," she said.     Dawa Lhamo, a nine-year-old student from the No. 3 primary school in Lhasa, was happy on Saturday although she was not familiar with the past.     "I will become a soldier when I grow up, to protect Tibet," she said.     People from outside Tibet also expressed their wishes to Tibetans.     Chen Qiuxiong, leader of a working group dispatched from eastern Fujian Province to help with development of Tibet, said they have built a number of infrastructure projects serving farming and animal husbandry in Tibet and helped with the development of culture and education and health care as well as poverty reduction.     "Tibet is now in the period of development and stability, and we will do more for the development of the region," Chen said.     Liu Lumei, a deputy researcher with the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Regional Academy of Social Sciences, said that the establishment of the Serfs Emancipation Day embodies the common wish of all the Chinese people for the stability and development in Tibet.

BEIJING, April 15 (Xinhua) -- China, the world's biggest manufacturer of electronics and information technology (IT) products, said Wednesday it will boost the industry's development to create more than 1.5 million new jobs in three years.     The electronics and IT sector is expected to contribute at least 0.7 percentage points to China's annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth from 2009 to 2011, compared with 0.8 percentage points last year, according to a document approved by the State Council and published on the government Web site.     That will provide new jobs for nearly 1 million college graduates, which are included in the total 1.5 million targeted vacancies, said the document.     China's electronics and IT products sales surged at an average annual rate of 28 percent from 2001 to 2007, but slowed sharply to 12.5 percent last year amid the economic downturn.     Sales in 2008 totaled 6.3 trillion yuan (920 billion U.S. dollars), with exports reaching 521.8 billion U.S. dollars, or 36.5 percent of the country's total export value.     The government announced a support plan for the industry in February. The Wednesday document made clear details of the plan.     The government will boost the industry by increasing state investment, credit support and export tax rebates, said the document.     It also pledged to expand the domestic market for the industry and encourage innovation and restructuring.     In the next three years, the country aims to achieve technological breakthroughs in strategic domains of the industry such as integrate circuits, new-type displays and software, according to the document.     For instance, revenues from software and information service sectors will take up 15 percent of the industry's total, up from the current 12 percent.     In addition, fresh growth will be cultivated in such fields as digital TVs and the new generation of mobile communications and Internet.     The government said it will vigorously promote the overseas commercial use of its domestically-developed TD-SCDMA standard for the high-speed third-generation mobile communications.

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SHENZHEN, Feb. 7 (Xinhua) -- China started construction of the eastern segment of the country's second West-East natural gas pipeline in Shenzhen City, Guangdong Province on Saturday.     Chinese Vice Premier Li Keqiang attended the kick-off ceremony announced the start of the construction.     The pipeline, the second after the first West-East natural gas transfer project, will cross 15 regions and carry 30 billion cubic meters of natural gas every year to Zhejiang, Shanghai, Guangdong and Hong Kong, among others.     When visiting the construction site, Li said the pipeline under construction is the country's most expensive energy project in decades and the world's longest natural gas pipeline. It is of great importance to ensuring China's energy security, coordinating regional economic development, deepening the ties between Hong Kong and inland provinces and promoting economic growth.     The 8,704 km pipeline will be made up of one trunk line and eight sub-lines. Construction of the west segment of the pipeline was started in February 2008 and is expected to be completed by the end of the year. The whole line will be operational by the end of 2011.     As China battles the financial crisis and expands its domestic demand, the second West-East gas pipeline project is a landmark project that will boost people's confidence to overcome the crisis, said an official with the National Development and Reform Commission.     The total investment of the second West-East gas pipeline was 142.2 billion yuan (20.82 billion U.S. dollars). The eastern segment stretches 2,472 km, with an investment of 93 billion yuan.     The government approved the east segment project during an executive meeting of the State Council or the Cabinet last November, in a hope to ease natural gas shortage, boost economic development and popularize utilization of clear energy.     Zhou Dadi, a researcher with the Energy Research Institute of National Development and Reform Commission said the construction of the gas pipe is essential for China to increase gas resources and ensure energy security.     It is hoped that construction will boost consumption and increase investment amid a world economic downturn, Zhou added.     It is estimated that investment will top 300 billion yuan in other relevant industries, including machinery production, electric technology, and construction material sectors.     Dong Xiucheng, professor with China University of Petroleum said this project will help China increase clean energy consumption.     In China, coal makes up 70 percent of the total energy consumption, 40 percentage points higher than the world average. Natural gas consumption only accounts for three percent of the total.     The completion of the second pipeline is expected to save 11.06million tonnes of coal every year.     The first West-East gas pipeline was finished in 2004. It has provided 42 billion cubic meters of gas to 3,000 factories and nearly 200 million people over the past five years     Wang Yang, secretary of the Guangdong Provincial Committee of the Communist Party of China, and Donald Tsang, chief executive of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, also attended Saturday's ceremony.

BEIJING, Feb. 12 -- A sharp fall in imports and exports in January, which included a weeklong Spring Festival holiday, has both puzzled and alarmed economists.     General Administration of Customs figures released yesterday showed exports plummeted 17.5 percent year-on-year, much sharper than the 2.8 percent fall in December.     Imports fell even more dramatically, to 43.1 percent year-on-year.     The combined foreign trade in January fell 29 percent year-on-year. Such a major decline in monthly foreign trade is rare in the 30 years of reform and opening up. General Administration of Customs figures released yesterday showed exports plummeted 17.5 percent year-on-year, much sharper than the 2.8 percent fall in December    Because of the global economic downturn, foreign trade is likely to fall for several more months, the economists said. Su Chang, a macro-economic analyst with China Economic Business Monitor, said it could decline by 10 percent in the first quarter of this year.     "It is possible that China's yearly record will be negative as well." But, he said the decline in imports would be largely because of the fall in prices of industrial materials.     "Prices of primary goods - China's main imports - are at a low points now, while they were at historic highs just a year ago," he said.     Last month, however, was an exception because it had one full week of holiday from January 26. The Chinese Lunar New Year is the most important festival for Chinese but usually it falls in February.     So this year, January had five fewer working days than those in many of the previous years. If that is considered, the Customs said, exports actually rose 6.8 percent year-on-year in January. And compared with December, they increased 4.6 percent.     The worldwide deflationary cycle was another problem, the economists said. The sharp drop in imports was caused both because of a fall in global prices (most noticeably of crude oil and farm products) and a drop in demand for electronic components, which reflected the shrinking of the country's manufacturing industry.     Ting Lu, economist with Merrill Lynch in Hong Kong, said there was no good method to adjust for the Chinese New Year effects. "Our first suggestion: ignore them," Lu said in note to clients in the monthly trade figures.     When compared with neighboring economies, experts said, China's record is not the worst. Jing Ulrich, analyst with JP Morgan, has written in a report that while the recent export slowdown has been alarming, it has not been as severe in China as in some neighboring economies that rely more heavily on the hi-tech sector.     While Jing Wang, chief economist of Morgan Stanley, said China's export structure is more diverse, and as a result less volatile, in the region.